Articles›Declarer Play›Interactive Problem 14
Interactive Problem 14
5 minutes
Thu, Feb 29, 2024Gavin WolpertDeclarer PlayVideo: Bridge Hand
Articles›Declarer Play›Interactive Problem 14
5 minutes
Thu, Feb 29, 2024Gavin WolpertDeclarer PlayVideo: Bridge Hand
Comments
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I haven't been able to reproduce this, but the first time I played the hand results didn't pop up. Then I hit replay and I got a new hand rather than the original problem. Hit it a few more times and got new deals.
Aha -- Match Points. I wondered if it were IMPs or MPs. I played it as Imps and lead a low spade towards the 9. When I saw the results, I knew it was MPs, so I should have played for a normal spade split and merely worked on dropping the DK (clearly offside). Now I know.
Playing slam, isn't ruffing two diamonds like here better? Kxx of diamonds on East is more likely than Qx of hearts on East, 43 split is better than 42 and 3/7>2/6 (I get the point that we never take your line in game because of going down twice) and there might even be a showup squueze with this line when West has ♦Kxxxx, or if we believe their count signals and guess Kxxx diamonds with West. Would you be able to guess that if they both follow three times vs experts, not giving up really obvious tells, and if yes, how? would you believe their signals?
Yeah you're right its better to take this line in 6 as well. If dummy had 5 hearts it would swing the other way.
But Mate you're not taking into account the risk of a ruff, which does not occur if you draw trumps, try to drop to HQ, and fall back on the D finesse.
I played it differently, took 12. I played one round of trump, then D to the Ace, D back. They popped up with the K which I ruffed. Then I was able to throw 3rd heart from my hand on good QD after calling trump. Was this completely wrong? I was thinking I could set up a D trick slowly, with entry by ruff the club, and using AH as entries, but they popped K right away.
You didn't play it differently. That was my suggested line. The robot just wasn't supposed to make it easier with the king popping up. Well played!
Do you not have to counterweight the possibility of ♦K dropping with the chance of a non-4-3 split and instead losing to a the S8 or SJ on your left? Then if the finesse is also off you would find yourself simply making? How do you go about deciding what is 'percentage' here? (i.e. probably 35% ish chance of K dropping for + 1 trick), but also maybe 30% chance of K not dropping and non 4-3 split, (cut to 15% because you are only risking more if W runs out first (although it could be as little as 10 or so if one ruffs with the 10% on the second round). I guess the EV is slightly positive, but is it worth the risk? What is the line? Does the line change if instead of this risking +2 or =, it instead risked +1 or -1? I remember from a previous video, in MPs you took a finesse based on knowing that the spade split was 2-4 and thus the 2/3 favorite odds were enough for you to risk a contract for another trick in MPs, but what is lowest favorability in which you will still go for something like that.
Yes you have to weigh it but this one isnt really close. It feels like more than 2:1 more likely youre gaining a trick compared to losing a trick. I think in practice the 6-1 breaks happen even less than what the odds say on paper. They would have lead a stiff D here. Some of the time you are getting overruffed with a natural trump trick. Some of the time the J8 of spades are onside and your 7 wins. Not to mention the fact that you might actually gain a trick when spades are 4-1 onside as you ruff yourself down to a position that you won't need to lose a spade trick. As you said which card you ruff with on the 3rd round of diamonds affects what your odds of gaining a trick on the various layouts. On a hand like this where I know everyone is in 4♠, I am very willing to take a +EV spot for that overtrick. I dont know where the line is well enough to give you an absolute answer.
Assuming trump breaks, let's compare this to drawing trump first and hoping DK is doubleton. It wins if Ds are 4-3 (62%) and the DK is in the three (3/7) and the H finesse is off (1/2), i.e. with probability .13. It loses if W has 2 Diamonds and the SJ, with probability .08. And I'm not even counting the chance that E or W has 1 Diamond, since the other might have preempted. In any case, is the marginal value worth all this? For random computer hands, practice should correspond to theory, though the bidding might make some extreme distributions less likely.
I'm not sure what you are trying to say here Chip. Are you saying that it wasn't worth posting a problem that you can gain a trick by taking a better line of play because it was marginal? As I said in my comment above, you also gain a trick when spades are 4-1 onside with this line, so I don't think it's as close as what you are saying. Not only that but you breakeven if 5-2 diamond overruff was to a natural Jxxx of trumps. So 4-1 trump breaks change the math on both sides. Either way, I put this problem up to emphasize the need to look to improve beyond a simple finesse.
Thank you!